More by Luck than by Judgement – Exploring Luck in Wizard101

More by Luck than by Judgement
Exploring Luck in Wizard101

“You just got lucky.”
“I went second 13 times in a row, just my luck.”
“I got unlucky with my deck.”

In games like Wizard101, luck is very important. You can have all the skill you need to succeed in PvP, yet one deck fail brings you down. Then, you hatch 10 times and never get the pet you wanted. You buy packs without ever getting that one item you’re really after.

However, there are several types of luck. Some of those types you can influence, others you can’t. Let’s take a look at the different types.

 More by Luck than by Judgement

Blind Luck

Firstly, there’s blind luck, random luck, dumb luck. It’s the luck that occurs completely accidentally. Think about buying those packs for example. There’s a small chance to get what you want in each pack. You can’t do anything special to influence the luck factor. As such, blind luck is is something you just have to take as it comes. The only thing you have control over with blind luck is how much you spend on the pack.


Active Luck

This brings us to the second kind of luck: active luck. This is the luck that happens when you put yourself into situations where luck can take place. If you buy exactly zero packs, you can’t get lucky. You don’t know whether you’re going to have good or bad luck, but you’re actively putting yourself in a situation that can generate luck.

Active luck requires you to be at the right place at the right time. It requires an effort from your side and a willingness to be where luck can take place. When you spend time in the Hatchery, you are more likely to run into that perfect pet you would love to hatch with. Just sitting in your dorm, wishing you had that pet, will not get you anywhere. Another action you could take would be to try to find a hatch on Wizard101 central.

There is one possible downfall with active luck. People tend to think their luck improves with every pack they buy. They think now that they’ve bought an immense amount of packs, they’re more likely to get what they want. They think they’re bound to get it now, because of their buying history. Newsflash: your luck doesn’t get better with each pack. It’s always just as likely to get what you’re after in the first pack as in the 80th.

More by Luck than by Judgement


Causal Luck

Another type of luck that you CAN influence is causal luck. This type of luck is caused by actions you take. Sure, you could be standing in the Hatchery all day and never find that one pet. However, you could be working towards getting a better pet all along. You can improve your luck by hatching a lot. That way, when you do find that perfect pet, the owner is less likely to decline your request for a hatch. By working hard, you’re improving your odds to get lucky.


Execution Luck

Execution luck refers to an unavoidable variance in performance due to imperfect skill. We all make mistakes, even when we’re good at something. Your spell might still fizzle. The mobs you’re fighting can stun you the round you were about to kill. While you can’t avoid this kind of luck, it will have an influence on the player. You blame yourself when you exhibit short bursts of sub-average performance. Those bursts are inevitable. There are always random variations in human performance. A person who wins 80% of the time can still lose three matches in a row about 1% of the time.


Hidden Luck

Hidden luck will only be found if you keep your eyes open. When you look for good luck, you might find it. When an opportunity presents that sets you on the right path of luck, you see it due to your perspective. That perspective is formed by all your unique knowledge, experiences and skills. Maybe the pet in the hatchery isn’t the pet you wanted, but it’s a step closer to that perfect pet. By jumping on that smaller opportunity, you get closer to the real goal.

Luck in PvP

All these previously mentioned types of luck appear in PvP. First, there is blind luck. You go either first or second. There’s nothing you can do to influence this type of luck. Sure, you could try dancing during the countdown, but I think we all know that doesn’t work. Your chances are 50/50 no matter what you do. And no, after going second ten times, you will not have a bigger chance to go first. It’s still 50/50 just like the first match you did.

Second, there is active luck. If you don’t PvP, you can’t go first. Put yourself into situations where you can get lucky. Join the queue and fight the battles and you’re increasing your luck just by being there. You’re better off doing more matches than waiting for that perfect moment to increase your chances of a win.

Third comes causal luck. You can blame your deck for failing, but have you considered that it might be due to the way you built it? Can an imperfect deck perform perfectly? Sure, perfect decks fail as well. However, a well-built deck will definitely be more likely to lead to success than a badly-built one. Bad causal luck is usually caused by refraining from doing something. You’re only going to get stunned at a bad moment if you don’t use stun blocks. You probably won’t have that unlucky fizzle if you build your gear to have good accuracy. As you can see, being proactive can help avoid bad causal luck.

Next, we have execution luck. This is the kind of luck that allows you to predict your opponent’s bubble change when you’re second and changing it back the same round. Bad execution luck for you could be for example your opponent’s pet enfeebling when you place that last blade. Or vice versa: your pet not enfeebling when your opponent casts blades. Remember that you can influence these by respectively casting storm dispels and casting lots of charms to trigger enfeeble. However, in that case, you’re influencing your causal luck, which influences your execution luck.

Last but not least, we have hidden luck. So you’re feeling your opponent must be close to a reshuffle. Do you risk attacking? Bad hidden luck would be their last cards they have in hand being just shields and heals, negating your attack. Good hidden luck would mean they are locked out of healing because they really need that reshuffle. You saw this chance, went for it, and perhaps it paid off. You won that match because you were aware of the opportunities it offered.


Some Luck-Based Advice for PvP

  • Accept that you will have streaks of going second beyond what you see as 50% (blind luck)
  • You should PvP lots because the more fights you do, the more wins you will acquire (active luck)
  • Make changes to your deck if you feel you’re not getting the right cards (causal luck)
  • Know that even the perfect deck will fail occasionally (execution luck)
  • Sometimes you should just wing it in PvP, you can’t always plan everything (hidden luck)
  • Train and use stun blocks to avoid losing due to a badly timed stun (causal luck)
  • Don’t blame yourself when you lose a battle you should have won, it happens! (execution luck)


How lucky are you feeling today?

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Leave A Comment!

  • Ryan Lifesword

    I’ve been trying to get Pigsie from the wysteria lore pack, but to no avail. I may have gotten an amber from the gladiator from Mount Olympus but I want amber super fast. You see, I’m using 2 accounts and I’m trying to get mostly amber for Queen Calypso and Pigsie. Why does luck appear at random times and battles?

  • James Earthwalker

    The fact that there are so many things in this game that are entirely luck-based is proof enough that some serious changes need to be made.

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